NBA Draft Lottery and Mock Top 10

So if you're an NBA fan, you have to admit that you're first thought upon hearing the results of this week's Draft Lottery were something like "Oh God, how will they screw this up??" Yup, that's what you get when you have a franchise that has been run as comically inept as the LA Clippers have been. The Clippers have won the lottery on two previous occasions and went on to draft a good, but not great player (Danny Manning) and one of the biggest busts in recent memory (Michael Olowakandi). But with one clear-cut option for them to choose at #1 this year, they've gotta get this one right, right? Right? Hey, it's the NBA where amazing happens. And nothing is more amazing than Mike Dunleavy still having his job so don't count the Clippers out from somehow drafting Blake Griffin's (much less talented) brother Taylor instead.

Anyways, this will be a rough, Top 10 only mock draft. I plan to have a revised mock as we close in on the draft. At that point, we will know which underclassmen will be returning to school and will get a better read on the draft stocks of some players once individual workouts and the draft camps are completed, which will also help with a more in-depth mock of the entire first round.

So to start it off, with the 1st pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, the Los Angeles Clippers select: Blake Griffin, PF - University of Oklahoma.

This is the no-brainer. Only talent in this draft that can be considered a sure (or close to sure) thing. The guy put up legit numbers as a sophomore on a good team against top competition. He brought it every night and displayed enough athleticism to still put up 14.4 rpg despite having less than ideal size for a PF. It's hard not to like a guy who coulda been a Top 5-10 pick after his freshman year, wasn't satisfied, came back and worked his tail off to become the presumptive #1 pick.

The funny thing is, of all the teams in the Top 7 or so in the draft lottery, for a draft that has really 2 premier talents (a PF and a PG in Spain's Ricky Rubio), the team that won the lottery is the only one that doesn't have an opening for either. Griffin would be joining a Clippers team with a ridiculous amount of money tied up in Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph (not to mention one more year of Marcus Camby), so they would ideally like to move one or three of them in trades. Problem is, there is ZERO trade value currently in Randolph and close to none on Kaman because of their contracts. Camby can be a legitimate trade chip in February with his expiring deal so they'd prefer not to move him just yet. If they had gotten #2 and targeted Rubio, they could at least have a bit of an easier time shopping Baron Davis. That said, it's not even close to a valid excuse to draft Rubio #1 over Griffin. Plus, as the Clippers, they'd probably botch any attempt to trade down so they're best served minimizing the chance they screw this up and just take Blake.
The Pick: Blake Griffin, PF - Oklahoma

#2 - Memphis Grizzlies
This team deserves a break. They've been in the lottery almost as often as the Clippers since their inception, yet have never received the #1 pick, most notably in 2003 when the #1 pick (which they would have been allowed to keep) would have gotten them LeBron, but they got the #2 and had to give the pick to the Pistons as per the Otis Thorpe trade....so sad.

Anyways, the Grizz would have been a great fit for Griffin because of the young pieces in place at each other starting position (Gasol, Gay, Mayo, Conley), but that's not going to be the case. What GM Chris Wallace needs to do is not overreact and take UConn's Hasheem Thabeet over Ricky Rubio. I've already read some buzz about that being a possibility, but that should just stop now.
Rubio is light years ahead of Mike Conley Jr., despite being even younger, and his size and pass-first nature would be a perfect compliment to OJ Mayo in the Memphis backcourt that would now have the potential to be among the NBA's best in 2-3 years. Plus, on the upside, Conley is still young enough to have pretty decent trade value, as asset the Grizz can't create if they draft Thabeet. They should set their sights on Rubio and relax knowing their backcourt is SET. If you want a full breakdown of just how good Ricky Rubio is, watch this or read any of Morales' glowing reviews.
The Pick: Ricky Rubio, PG - Spain

#3 - Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC almost hit the jackpot again by winning the lottery and getting the right to draft Griffin, who happens to be from Oklahoma City. However, the Thunder still find themselves in a good spot. The most likely pick is the consensus #3 pick in Hasheem Thabeet. In Thabeet, they would get the interior defense and shotblocking they thought they were getting at the trade deadline in the Tyson Chandler trade. Now they can just draft a taller, better defensive player (who will come much cheaper) and hope he develops offensively. With the other offensive talent on the team, he won't be under much pressure to be a big-time scorer early on.

But the Thunder would still be ready to gobble up Rubio if the Grizz passed on him. Although they have a point guard they love in 2008 lottery pick Russell Westbrook, he is not quite the pure point Rubio is. Rubio's size and defense would allow them to play Westbrook off the ball at the 2. Only downside being that that would be a very poor jump-shooting backcourt, but unmatched in athleticism. A darkhorse candidate is ASU's James Harden. He would provide them with a solid shooter to hit the open shots created by the drives of Kevin Durant and Westbrook.
The Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C - Connecticut

#4 - Sacramento Kings
Well, talk about the lottery not quite going quite as hoped for. The Kings became the latest team to not reap the "benefits" of finishing with the league's worst record. This is a team that could have seriously used Griffin or Rubio immensely, and even Thabeet to a degree. After those three, the dropoff is significant. Of the next 5-7 guys in the draft, most are swingmen or combo guards. They already have a budding star in Kevin Martin, so Kings biggest perimeter need is a pure point. Unfortunately, there isn't another pure point worthy of being the #4, and the ones considered PGs are Davidson's Stephen Curry (converted SG) and Jrue Holiday (unimpressive freshman season at UCLA). So the Kings could either add a SF with a lot of upside (DeMar DeRozan) or a big guy that can bring toughness and energy (Jordan Hill). I think the fact that they need to get something of value out of this pick after finishing an NBA-worst 17-65 will push them towards Hill over the talented, but untested, freshman DeRozan.
The Pick: Jordan Hill, PF - Arizona

#5 - Washington Wizards
Another team that got hosed on Lottery Night, the Wizards dropped from #2 to #5 thanks to the bounce of the ping pong balls. But picking at 5 isn't too bad when this team is going to be adding a (supposedly) healthy Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood to the mix next season. The question is, can the Wizards contend with that plus the #5 pick? If not, they could try to do what they did a few years back in shipping the #5 pick to Dallas for Antawn Jamison. So if they want to try to contend now, they could pick up a veteran rather than bring in a rookie. Which is probably better because their isn't much size after Jordan Hill, which is their biggest need. So I expect a deal here for a team looking for a SG/PG upgrade.

But if they keep the pick, look for them to take a guy like James Harden or DeMar DeRozan who can team with Nick Young to provide them with some backcourt scoring off the bench.
The Pick: James Harden, SG - Arizona

#6 - Minnesota Timberwolves
Here's a team who isn't going to be looking for size when they've got Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. So the T'Wolves will be ready to take their pick from the litany of swingmen that are available in the 5-10 range. Corey Brewer hasn't quite worked out and Randy Foye is better not being counted on to be a pure point guard. So look for them to look at DeMar DeRozan and Brandon Jennings to fill one of those needs. I think the fact that they need a pure point will steer them away from Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans. I give the edge to Jennings as the Wolves look to build from the ground up and know that Sebastian Telfair isn't the PG to do that.
The Pick: Brandon Jennings, PG - Italy

#7 - Golden State Warriors
Does anyone know what Done Nelson is really thinking? Doubtful. So trying to forecast what they'll do with this pick is damn near impossible. They're still trying to replace Baron Davis and are know that Monta Ellis will probably never be comfortable at the point. That would suggest trying to address that need with Stephen Curry or Jrue Holiday. But given the unpredictable nature of the Warriors roster, I'm going to guess that they look at the potential freakish upside of Tyreke Evans and become enamored with it.
The Pick: Tyreke Evans, SG - Memphis

#8 - New York Knicks
This pick has been rumored to be where Stephen Curry will go at the lowest. That's because Curry is a guy who many people think fits Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo stlye very well. His ability to shoot, high basketball IQ, and developing PG skills should help D'Antoni begin to mold this team the way he wants going into the summer of 2010. If they don't take Curry, I'd look for them to go with the athleticism and upside of DeMar DeRozan to fill the void of Nate Robinson's likely departure.
The Pick: Stephen Curry, PG - Davidson

#9 - Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are looking at the very real possibility that this will be their last season with Chris Bosh, which is frightening to Raptors fans. However, they're definitely not going to be finding anything resembling a replacement at this spot. But there are a couple players they could look at with big potential: DeRozan and Wake Forest PF James Johnson. Johnson is a bit undersized but makes up for it with his athleticism and his versatility may even allow him to play alongside Bosh and Andrea Bargnani. DeRozan would be an immediate upgrade over free-agent Anthony Parker and his ability to attack the basket would be a good contrast to the players they have that like to hang around the 3-point line. The fact that Bosh could be on his way out gives the nod to Johnson.
The Pick: James Johnson, PF - Wake Forest

#10 - Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are faced with losing both Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions to free agency this offseason and will be trying to figure out how to improve a team that has been a bit stagnant in recent years. They get Michael Redd back from a knee injury, and are still looking for a solid big man to pair with former #1 pick Andrew Bogut. The Bucks were a rumored destination for Zach Randolph during the season, and those talks could be rekindled now that the Clippers have the #1 pick. If so, a deal could be struck centering around Randolph-for-Richard Jefferson, which would fill a need for both teams, but only if the Bucks think Randolph is sane enough to bring in. With no big man worth this pick and me not believing that Jrue Holiday is going to stay in the lottery, the trade would allow the Bucks to draft DeRozan and plug him into the SF spot vacated by the outgoing Jefferson.
The Pick: DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF - USC

So there you go...my first run at the Top 10. Like I said, much will change when players start individual workouts and go through the pre-draft camps, so we will revisit this in about a month to see what's changed: who's in and who's out, whose stock has risen and whose has fallen.