2009-10 East Preview: Part II

In 2008, while everyone knew the Celtics were the champs and the Cavs were the competition, no one really took the Orlando Magic seriously. Not after getting off to a fast start and not after cruising to a Southeast Division title with a cool 59 wins, or even after posting an 8-3 record against the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Spurs. But we all know how that turned out. This season? Not so much. Each of the East's big three have made significant alterations to their roster in an effort to outdo the others. Who does that mean will be coming out on top? Read on to find out...

8. Toronto Raptors
Last season saw the Raptors fail to live up on heightened expectations of a season ago. The offseason saw them bring in an aging, defensively-challenged, Euro-styler in Hedo Turkoglu. Nevermind the signs of regression that Turkoglu showed last season in Orlando, but is he really the piece that's going to keep Chris Bosh around? I doubt it. On paper, the Raptors have enough talent to cobble together about 40-43 wins, squeak into the playoffs in the lower half and be cannon fodder for one of the East's bigwigs in the first round.

7. Miami Heat
The Heat were a feel good story last year, rebounding from 15 wins to the 5th seed in the East. But they basically stood still in the offseason, sitting out free agency due to their salary obligations as a luxury tax team. The result is that virtually no depth was added to an already thinning roster while they watched an underrated Jamario Moon skip off to Cleveland on a relatively reasonable offer sheet because they couldn't match it. Outside of D-Wade, are they really ready to rely on Jermaine O'Neal and Michael Beasley. Let's just say they need two things from last season to happen again: Wade plays like an MVP, and does so for 75+ games.

6. Washington Wizards
A year ago, even if they had a healthy Gilbert Arenas, I would have docked them a couple spots after the news that Antawn Jamison will be missing the season's first month (or more) with a shoulder injury. However, in addition to getting Arenas back (and supposedly healthy), the Wiz also have some much-needed depth for the first time, courtesy of their draft-night trade with Minnesota. In that deal, the Wizards picked up some talented, albeit unspectacular, pieces in Mike Miller and Randy Foye in exchange for the pick that wound up being used on Ricky Rubio, whom you might have heard, is playing at least the next two seasons in Spain. In either case, I see the Wizards returning to the playoffs under Flip Saunders.

5. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls showed a lot in last year's playoffs, taking the Celtics to 7 games in that memorable first round series. While that's cause for optimism in Chicago, don't expect them to make a serious run at the East title just yet. The Bulls have Derrick Rose, yes, but they will also be trying to replace Ben Gordon's off-the-bench production, trying to reincorporate Luol Deng, and hoping that either Joakim Noah or Tyrus Thomas find some consistency and reliability down low. Jannero Pargo should provide some of the spark Gordon did, but the Bulls still lack much of an inside presence. That said, they are primed to be a player in the 2010 free agent bonanza (more for Wade or Bosh than LeBron) so this team could be in a good spot for years to come.

4. Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks are stuck in a middle ground that no other East team is. They're a playoff lock much more so than the teams 5-9 in this preview, but a far cry from bring considering in the class of the BOS/CLE/ORL triumvirate. They have solid talent, but were OK letting Josh Smith shop around for an offer sheet this offseason, and content at bringing Bibby back. But beyond those moves, where is there opportunity to improve? Johnson, Horford, Williams, and those 2 make a solid starting 5, but it lacks a verifiable star. They added some depth in trading for Jamal Crawford and drafting Jeff Teague, and I see them locking up first-round home court advantage again, but I don't see them posing a real threat at cracking the top 3. The future will be interesting considering the money they've shelled out to keep this current group intact.

3. Orlando Magic
I, for one, believe the Magic got better in the offseason. Trading for Vince Carter is a risk, but a justifiable one in my opinion. They added some depth in Brandon Bass and resigning Marcin Gortat. So why are they still third? Because I believe the moves made by Cleveland and Boston surpassed Orlando, rather than Orlando regressing behind those two. Orlando needs a lot of shots to fall to be competitive and while they got enough last year, its a lot to ask for again. They'll be good, but will they survive another playoffs going through both Boston and Cleveland? My guess is no. Like I said at the top, no one was really ready to take them seriously last year until all of a sudden they had the Cavs on the brink of elimination. That won't happen this year.

2. Boston Celtics
So without KG, this team still took the eventual East champs to 7 games, retained most of its core, brought in the type of rangy big-man needed to counter Rashard Lewis and the Orlando perimeter game, and should be getting Garnett back at near full-strength. Sounds like a pretty good start to the season for Boston. But all of it will come back to KG's knees. Will they hold up through 82 games and the playoffs? Will he have the same effect on defense that allows the Boston perimeter guys to play right up on their marks? These are justifiable questions when a guy like KG has logged so many high-impact games and minutes on his knees. If he is close to the same player and stays healthy, I like their chances of making another trip to the Finals. If not, well the Big 3 in the East just became 2.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Yes, I question the Shaq trade. Will he fit in? WIll he accept his role as LBJ's sidekick? Is Ilgauskas a better player for their offense? I really think Shaq will be more of a bit player than many people think this year. And he's going to have to accept that or face another tumultous departure (which would make 5 in his career). This is LeBron's team and they will play LeBron's game. Plus, it's not like Mike Brown really has much of an offensive gameplan that is ready to incorporate an aging, on the block center. But I still like Cleveland in the East because of their ancillary moves (and Shaq is in that category. He's not a high-impact player. He was brought in to try and combat Dwight Howard). I think Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker and Leon Powe could mean as much to this team as Shaq does. I think it provides them with enough depth to play big or small and counter whatever looks the Celtics and/or Magic throw their way. And in the end, LeBron still wants to bring a title to Cleveland, even if at the very least it means he fulfilled that goal if he does indeed decide to move on next summer.

Next week....the Western Conference.

2009-10 East Preview: Part I

Everyone knows who is at the top of the East, and most will agree on who falls in that second tier of playoff hopefuls, but there's virtually no debate at who will be occupying the bottom part of the East standings for the course of the upcoming season...it's just the order that's up for debate and here's my take in Part I of my Eastern Conference Preview...

15. Milwaukee Bucks
So the Bucks let Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions go without getting compensation, then pretty much sold out on the Richard Jefferson trade for some much-needed salary relief. That leaves them with Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut and a litany of young, unproven kids. They have to figure out if Joe Alexander was worthy of his #8 pick in the last year's draft as well as what Brandon Jennings will bring to the table as a PG. But for the 09-10 season, the Bucks are going to experience some tough times.

14. New Jersey Nets
Not much to be excited about as a Nets fan right now. There in limbo right now, trying to hold out hope of being a player in the LeBron sweepstakes this coming offseason with hopes of being a contender when they move to Brooklyn. For now, Courtney Lee isn't going to score the points (or sell the tickets) that Vince Carter did, but at least they have some young talent in him, Devin Harris, and Brook Lopez. As for now, maybe they can be excited about the pub they are getting from being called the New Jersey Nyets.

13. New York Knicks
Another team that would prefer to just fast forward through the upcoming season to get to what all Knockerbocker fans have been waiting for: the 2010 Free Agent Signing period. Will LBJ head to Gotham? Perhaps. As for this season, look for the team to put up some points but also give up a ton. They brought back Lee and Nate-Rob on 1 year deals, so they will still br trying to get theirs. And if they finally unload Curry, they will probably have to throw in some young talent and receive back some garbage so that could further deplete this team's 09-10 outlook. However, no one will really care if LeBron inks a deal to play in Basketball Mecca next summer.

12. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have always had some intriguing talent, but a problem putting it all together. I really don't see that changing this year. Danny Granger is VERY good, but not capable of carrying the load of a playoff run (even in the East) on his shoulders. Getting a healthy Dunleavy back (no guarantee) should help, but there is little difference-making that will come from the rest of their offseason moves.

11. Charlotte Bobcats
What's in store for a team that has yet to make a playoff appearance but managed a franchise record in wins last year? More of the same. Larry Brown teams can defend, but it's scoring the rock that will hold down the Runnin' Jordans this year, a fact not helped by the trade of Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler. When's the last time you saw Chandler contribute offensively on a play not involving a lob from CP3? I doubt DJ Augustin and Ray Felton will provide the same alley-oop ops this year. That said, LB coaching and their reliance on a strong D will help them win a few games and keep them out of the East's cellar, though not by much.

10. Philadelphia 76ers
This is one of the hardest teams to peg. Back-to-back trips to the postseason and the return of Elton Brand should be enough to make another playoff trip, right? Well considering that they lost Andre Miller, a vital cog in the running of their offense, they will be searching for a new identity with new coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan should improve their offensive efficiency, but what gameplan will it be? The team struggled after trying to run the offense through Brand in the low post last season, only to take off after Brand separated his shoulder and they reverted to the up-tempo offense from the year before. So which do they play this year? I don't think it matters. Between Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday at the point, this team is going to struggle when Iguodala has to be the initiator on offense. Aside from trading for Jason Kapono, they made no other moves to rectify the fact that this team has little-to-no perimeter scoring. I see struggles and disagreements over the direction in Philly.

9. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons were a mess last season and tried to retool on the fly this offseason. Gone are Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace. In comes Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon. Problem is, Villanueva and Gordon are remarkably similar (albeit, younger) than the guys they lost, and that wasn't exactly a winning combo last year. Villanueva doesn't provide the team with much in the form of a low-post game, and Gordon is another shoot-first guard to go along with Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton, and all 3 lack the size to allow them to start 3 guards. So it will be interesting to see if new coach John Kuester can figure out a rotation that will keep all 3 happy. Overall, I see the lack of defense and a reliable inside game being enough to keep the Pistons out of the playoffs after squeaking in at #8 last season.

Check back tomorrow for Part II of my Eastern Conference Preview. Next week, I tackle the West.

Blog Reboot

I am hoping to be a little bit better on the blogging front as this season tips off. It has been a crazy hectic summer but hopefully all will right itself as the NBA season gets underway next week.

Upcoming posts will include a preview of the Eastern and Western Conferences and my 2009-2010 NBA predictions.

Stay tuned!