We all know who is expected to finish at the top (Lakers), but will there even really be much more than jockeying for position behind them? As detailed in yesterday's Part I of my Western Conference Preview, there really doesn't seem to be an obvious threat among the lottery teams from the last year that can contend for this year's playoffs. The only real trade out is the Suns benefiting from the Rockets injury woes and taking their spot. Some team from the Clippers/Warriors/Thunder/Rockets group could mount a surprising challenge but I don't seem them sustaining it. Therefore, I present Part II of the West Preview and how I see these 8 teams finishing it up.
8. Phoenix Suns
As I said already, the Suns may be the biggest beneficiaries of Yao Ming's lost season. After finishing 9th in an 8-horse race last year (albeit with 46 wins), they've recommitted to the run-and-gun style of the D'Antoni days, jettisoning Shaq in the offseason for what amounted to a few million bucks in salary relief. Amare is back from the freak eye injury that cost him the end of last season, just as the Suns were rounding into 140-points-is-possible form. So I expect Alvin Gentry to let the team run, run, run and then run some more. However, if this team does falter out of the gate, or looks like it could be passed in the playoff chase again, the talk about shopping free agent-to-be Stoudemire will surpass last season's elevated levels.
7. Dallas Mavericks
Another offseason spent getting older. The Mavericks acquired Shawn Marion (presumably hoping the Phoenix-version of the Matrix is still in there somewhere), but also got played by the Orlando Magic and let Brandon Bass leave thinking they would get Marcin Gortat on an offer sheet. When the Magic matched, the Mavs were left without either. Drew Gooden is a solid add in their place but is a downgrade and while they added some nice pieces in Quinton Ross, Kirk Humphries, and Richie Beaubouis, they are not guys you expect a lot from. The main core of Dirk, Kidd, Terry, and Howard is aging quickly and I just don't see the acquisition of Marion doing enough to vault them into the upper crust of the competitive West.
6. Utah Jazz
The Jazz knew going into the offseason that it could be one of major change for them. Carlos Boozer was expected to opt out of his contract (as was Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver) and Paul Millsap's restricted free agency could mean he'd be getting a big offer sheet elsewhere that the Jazz would have to contemplate matching. In the end, Millsap got his offer sheet (a front-loaded 4-year, $32 million offer from Portland) and the Jazz matched, while all 3 potential opt-outs declined the opportunity to become free agents and returned. Coupled with Deron Williams' max contract extension kicking in this season, this puts the Jazz nearly $14 million over the luxury tax line but without significant improvement over last year's squad. Sure, they still have a talented nucleus, but this team struggled down the stretch right as it got healthy and they were an easy out in the first round. The Jazz can hope for a more consistent effort this year, but that won't be easy given the fact that they are already shopping their All-Star PF in Boozer, just to try and cut the $24 million investment ($12M in salary, plus $12M in luxury tax).
#5 New Orleans Hornets
Yes, the Hornets look like they should get the better end of the Emeka Okafor-for-Tyson Chandler trade. Okafor's upside in comparison to Chandler is that he can actually produce offensively when given the ball in the low post and does not need to rely on strictly dumpoffs and alley-oops to score. However, this move alone isn't likely to make a large impact in terms of wins and losses for the Hornets, and there is little sense in believing anything else they did this summer will either. CP3 will take this team as far as he can, and with him at the helm, they will be a tough opponent, but the lack of quality depth and little production from Mo-Pete and Peja would spell another season in the middle of the pack for the Hornets.
#4 Denver Nuggets
Bill Simmons pointed out in his season preview that George Karl doesn't have a particularly comforting record in seasons coming off big successes. Whether this holds true in Denver goes beyond GK, but the early signs are a mixed bag. On one hand, Carmelo seems like he has really made the jump to star status and Chauncey Billups is the perfect leader for that team. On the other hand, everything seemed to go right last season, including the team staying relatively healthy (surprising on a team including Kenyon Martin and Nene) and the surprising impact of Chris "Birdman" Andersen. But financial concerns prevented the Nuggets from getting involved in free agency. Linas Kleiza signed in Europe, but they Nuggets will try to replace his bench production with Arron Afflalo and James White. I'm a big fan of their move in trading a future 1st rounder for the rights to PG Ty Lawson. I loved Lawson at UNC and thought he was a logical pick for them, even if he had come out a year sooner. I got to see him in a couple preseason games and he looks like the right contrast to Billups more methodical game and should provide a nice spark to their second unit.
#3 Portland Trail Blazers
The ceiling for the Blazers just keeps rising. Already armed with a roster full of young, talented players, the Blazers also were one of the few teams with a chunk of cap space last offseason. Surprisingly, they had some difficulty spending it. After Hedo Turkoglu came to a verbal agreement on a big contract, he came back a day later and said he was signing with the Raptors (in the end, I think better for the Blazers considering how Turkoglu thrived in Orlando with the ball in his hands, something Brandon Roy does in Portland). They signed Paul Millsap to the offer sheet referenced earlier, only to have the Jazz step up and match it. After a last-second attempt to pry Lamar Odom from LA, they settled on Andre Miller. Miller is another "ball in his hands" player, but the fact that the Blazers may bring him off the bench (and his willingness, at least publicly, to do so) should help. Steve Blake is the pass-first distributor the starters need, while Miller can run what will be a very talented second unit along with Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, and Joel Pryzbilla. After a disappointing first round exit last year, I think another season of maturing and expectations will help the Blazers grow into their role as a real title contender. At this point, given their recent tormenting of the Lakers, I think LA would rather see San Antonio in the WCF than the Blazers.
#2 San Antonio Spurs
I still think the Spurs had the best offseason of any team in the West, maybe even the NBA. This is a team that, for a few years now, has heard the talk of getting too old and seeing their championship window with Tim Duncan closing. After making some nice moves to get Roger Mason Jr. and George Hill last offseason, the Spurs upgraded their roster with Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and DeJuan Blair. The trade for Jefferson was an important move for the franchise as they cemented themselves as being a luxury tax payer with it, trading mostly useless pieces for a talented wing player. Jefferson provides them with a valuable scoring option, one that will provide a huge insurance policy should Manu Ginobili go down again. He's still very athletic, a good defender, and an overlooked shooter (important considering how many open looks teams were willing to give Bruce Bower over the years as the Spurs' starting SF). McDyess provides San Antonio with another big man that is capable enough to keep the opposing teams 2nd big occupied and unable to freely double or triple Duncan on the block. Blair was a steal in the second round and given the Spurs commitment to low maintenance players with a blue-collar work ethic, Blair fits right in. He's a seasoned college player who should be able to provide value in the Spurs second unit right away.
#1 Los Angeles Lakers
Ah yes, the Champs. What do you do when you win 67 games and the NBA title? Well if you're answer was to bring in Ron Artest, then you are the LA Lakers. Outside of Artest, nothing changed. In fact, Artest was the only player sitting out last night's ring ceremony as the other 14 guys on the roster were there a season ago. The only difference is the de facto trade of Artest for Trevor Ariza. I, for one (of the few), approved of the move in the end. Artest is certifiably crazy, but I think that he is starting off his time in LA on his absolute best behavior. The guy may be an idiot at times, but I wouldn't call him stupid. This is the high point of his career and he knows he can't screw it up. He's going to be Kobe's enforcer and Phil's dog. He will attach the other team's best player on D and notbe relied on to make too many offensive plays. In the end, Ron Artest gives the Lakers a better chance at winning a title in the next 3 years than Trevor Ariza does. Ariza is the better long-term solution, but for a team set up to win now and in the next few years, I think Artest is a better play, providing he stays in line. But I think playing for an NBA Championship or three is enough to do just that. Outside of the Artest debate, the Lakers eventually got an important part of last year's puzzle back in Lamar Odom, and you can pretty much write what you expect to get from Bryant and Pau Gasol in permanent ink. If Andrew Bynum can avoid a third straight season of knee injuries and play like he has in the preseason and last night's season opener (26 points, 13 rebounds), then the Lakers will host a repeat parade in downtown LA.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
2009-10 West Preview: Part I
Last week, I gave you Part I and Part II of my Eastern Conference Preview. This week, we move on to the West. The lower third of the West will have some real, honest-to-God cellar dwellers before we move into the 9-10 teams that could conceivably crack the playoffs.
15. Sacramento Kings
With all apologies to my man, the Big CM, the Kings are not going to be very good this year. Early returns are good on rookie Tyreke Evans, considered to be the top threat to the Blake Griffin Rookie of the Year campaign (editor's note: Now the ROY favorite if Blake Griffin is going to miss the first quarter of the season). Fellow rook Omri Casspi is showing the grit and skill that made him the first Israeli-born player to be drafted into the NBA. Other than that, not a whole lot to be excited about on this roster and it will be interesting to see how new coach Paul Westphal can coax more than the 17 wins the team had last year out of this group.
14. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Wallace, really? You give away Pau Gasol two years ago "to save money" and then acquire Zach Randolph and his equally expensive contract? Oh sure, he'll put up his fair share of 20-10 lines, but he's also just as likely to punch a teammate or eat his way to the bench. Top it off by bringing in Allen Iverson on a one-year, I've gotta show I still got it, deal and you've got the makings of disaster. Keep in mind this team had enough trouble sharing the ball last year with gunners Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo, and now you add in those two. It's like the 2003-04 Lakers with Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Payton....except with like 1/8th the talent and skill. At the very least the offensive shortcomings of #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet should go unnoticed since he will probably never get the chance to shoot.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Trading two of your better players (Mike Miller and Randy Foye) for the rights to a guy playing the next few years in Spain does little to help the T'Wolves outlook for this season. But they seem OK with that reality. This is a team that is starting to accrue some good young talent. They get Al Jefferson and Corey Brewer back from injury, Kevin Love (though hurt) had a promising rookie season, Johnny Flynn has the ability to be a dynamic guard, and they made a very underrated move in signing Ramon Sessions to a very reasonable (in NBA starting PG terms) 4-year, $16 million deal. That said, this is a step in the right direction as they try to get out from the weight of the Kevin McHale era, but this team is still a few years away.
12. Los Angeles Clippers
I was poised to make the Clippers a dark-horse playoff contender until news broke about Blake Griffin's broken kneecap (cue the ominous, cursed Clipper talk). This team still has some really talented players but it was really looking to Griffin to be the glue to their puzzle. With him projected to miss 6 weeks (and about 20 games looking at their schedule), that's a sizeable chunk of his rookie season and it may be enough to cost the Clippers the shot of making a run at the #8 spot. However, I think the Clips are heading in the right direction, and with another high draft pick and a load of cap space next offseason (thanks to the aforementioned dumbass Chris Wallace and his taking of Zach Randolph's contract), the "other" LA could be an enticing option for some of the prized free agents of the 2010 class.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
I personally love this quote from the LA Times basketball preview: "If this were a 25-and-under league, you'd have to love their chances." Alas, it is not, but you can't ignore the fact that the Thunder aren't just heading in the right direction, they're writing the book on how to get there. The team has a bevy of young talent, including MVP-in-waiting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green. They added James Harden to the group, along with a couple of down-the-road rookies that could provide returns in a few years (BJ Mullens, Serge Ibaka). They did what most NBA teams can't help but do and waited on spending their mountains of cap space on an underwhelming free agent class. They head into next season armed with two 1st round picks that could be in the lottery (their own and Phoenix's), plus a high #2 (from Minnesota) and could bring in one of the free agents in next year's bonanza. This team is going to be scary good in two years. As for this year, look for them to still be going through some growing pains and the lack of a reliable inside scoring game to hamper their offense when shots aren't falling. Their young guns are good enough to win them a fair share of games, but this is not the year of OKC (yet). I do have one reservation about this prediction: If KD does make another quantum leap in production (and many say he still has that room for growth), then all bets are off.
10. Golden State Warriors
Ever since famously upsetting the Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs, the Warriors have had a team that, on paper, should be a playoff contender. But little of that playoff magic has managed to carry over and this team always seems to be in flux. This year is no different with the (former) Captain Jack requesting a trade in preseason (after being banished to the locker room by Don Nelson during a game). They have an immensely talented youngin' in Anthony Randolph, but the question is will he get PT. They added another undersized combo guard in Stephen Curry who excels on offense but offers little on D, which isn't bad until you realize his likely backcourt mate is the similar Monta Ellis. As has been the formula for the Warriors and most Don Nelson teams, they will score their points, but will also give them up in astonishing amounts. If things were to break the right way, this team could shoot its way back into the playoff talk, but I see them spending another year in ho-hum land, which is really a travesty since playoff basketball in Oakland is really something to appreciate.
9. Houston Rockets
No Yao Ming, a giant question mark regarding what Tracy McGrady will provide this season, and one player on a 15-man roster listed as taller than 6-9. Sure, this plucky bunch took the Lakers to 7 games last year but I really don't see that carrying over to an 82-game regular season. I as much as anyone love Trevor Ariza, but I do recognize that he is much better as a complimentary player than how I think he will fare in a more prominent role in Houston. That said, he's a good piece for the Rockets if he either develops a reliable offensive game or they get a healthy Yao/T-Mac combo back. Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks are going to be asked to carry a lot of offensive burden this season and that is a lot to ask for. We know the Rockets will defend and play hard to the final whistle, but I think they've just been dealt a bad hand for this season and will struggle to overcome that, hard as they might try.
15. Sacramento Kings
With all apologies to my man, the Big CM, the Kings are not going to be very good this year. Early returns are good on rookie Tyreke Evans, considered to be the top threat to the Blake Griffin Rookie of the Year campaign (editor's note: Now the ROY favorite if Blake Griffin is going to miss the first quarter of the season). Fellow rook Omri Casspi is showing the grit and skill that made him the first Israeli-born player to be drafted into the NBA. Other than that, not a whole lot to be excited about on this roster and it will be interesting to see how new coach Paul Westphal can coax more than the 17 wins the team had last year out of this group.
14. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Wallace, really? You give away Pau Gasol two years ago "to save money" and then acquire Zach Randolph and his equally expensive contract? Oh sure, he'll put up his fair share of 20-10 lines, but he's also just as likely to punch a teammate or eat his way to the bench. Top it off by bringing in Allen Iverson on a one-year, I've gotta show I still got it, deal and you've got the makings of disaster. Keep in mind this team had enough trouble sharing the ball last year with gunners Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo, and now you add in those two. It's like the 2003-04 Lakers with Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Payton....except with like 1/8th the talent and skill. At the very least the offensive shortcomings of #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet should go unnoticed since he will probably never get the chance to shoot.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Trading two of your better players (Mike Miller and Randy Foye) for the rights to a guy playing the next few years in Spain does little to help the T'Wolves outlook for this season. But they seem OK with that reality. This is a team that is starting to accrue some good young talent. They get Al Jefferson and Corey Brewer back from injury, Kevin Love (though hurt) had a promising rookie season, Johnny Flynn has the ability to be a dynamic guard, and they made a very underrated move in signing Ramon Sessions to a very reasonable (in NBA starting PG terms) 4-year, $16 million deal. That said, this is a step in the right direction as they try to get out from the weight of the Kevin McHale era, but this team is still a few years away.
12. Los Angeles Clippers
I was poised to make the Clippers a dark-horse playoff contender until news broke about Blake Griffin's broken kneecap (cue the ominous, cursed Clipper talk). This team still has some really talented players but it was really looking to Griffin to be the glue to their puzzle. With him projected to miss 6 weeks (and about 20 games looking at their schedule), that's a sizeable chunk of his rookie season and it may be enough to cost the Clippers the shot of making a run at the #8 spot. However, I think the Clips are heading in the right direction, and with another high draft pick and a load of cap space next offseason (thanks to the aforementioned dumbass Chris Wallace and his taking of Zach Randolph's contract), the "other" LA could be an enticing option for some of the prized free agents of the 2010 class.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
I personally love this quote from the LA Times basketball preview: "If this were a 25-and-under league, you'd have to love their chances." Alas, it is not, but you can't ignore the fact that the Thunder aren't just heading in the right direction, they're writing the book on how to get there. The team has a bevy of young talent, including MVP-in-waiting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green. They added James Harden to the group, along with a couple of down-the-road rookies that could provide returns in a few years (BJ Mullens, Serge Ibaka). They did what most NBA teams can't help but do and waited on spending their mountains of cap space on an underwhelming free agent class. They head into next season armed with two 1st round picks that could be in the lottery (their own and Phoenix's), plus a high #2 (from Minnesota) and could bring in one of the free agents in next year's bonanza. This team is going to be scary good in two years. As for this year, look for them to still be going through some growing pains and the lack of a reliable inside scoring game to hamper their offense when shots aren't falling. Their young guns are good enough to win them a fair share of games, but this is not the year of OKC (yet). I do have one reservation about this prediction: If KD does make another quantum leap in production (and many say he still has that room for growth), then all bets are off.
10. Golden State Warriors
Ever since famously upsetting the Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs, the Warriors have had a team that, on paper, should be a playoff contender. But little of that playoff magic has managed to carry over and this team always seems to be in flux. This year is no different with the (former) Captain Jack requesting a trade in preseason (after being banished to the locker room by Don Nelson during a game). They have an immensely talented youngin' in Anthony Randolph, but the question is will he get PT. They added another undersized combo guard in Stephen Curry who excels on offense but offers little on D, which isn't bad until you realize his likely backcourt mate is the similar Monta Ellis. As has been the formula for the Warriors and most Don Nelson teams, they will score their points, but will also give them up in astonishing amounts. If things were to break the right way, this team could shoot its way back into the playoff talk, but I see them spending another year in ho-hum land, which is really a travesty since playoff basketball in Oakland is really something to appreciate.
9. Houston Rockets
No Yao Ming, a giant question mark regarding what Tracy McGrady will provide this season, and one player on a 15-man roster listed as taller than 6-9. Sure, this plucky bunch took the Lakers to 7 games last year but I really don't see that carrying over to an 82-game regular season. I as much as anyone love Trevor Ariza, but I do recognize that he is much better as a complimentary player than how I think he will fare in a more prominent role in Houston. That said, he's a good piece for the Rockets if he either develops a reliable offensive game or they get a healthy Yao/T-Mac combo back. Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks are going to be asked to carry a lot of offensive burden this season and that is a lot to ask for. We know the Rockets will defend and play hard to the final whistle, but I think they've just been dealt a bad hand for this season and will struggle to overcome that, hard as they might try.
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