2009-10 West Preview: Part I

Last week, I gave you Part I and Part II of my Eastern Conference Preview. This week, we move on to the West. The lower third of the West will have some real, honest-to-God cellar dwellers before we move into the 9-10 teams that could conceivably crack the playoffs.

15. Sacramento Kings
With all apologies to my man, the Big CM, the Kings are not going to be very good this year. Early returns are good on rookie Tyreke Evans, considered to be the top threat to the Blake Griffin Rookie of the Year campaign (editor's note: Now the ROY favorite if Blake Griffin is going to miss the first quarter of the season). Fellow rook Omri Casspi is showing the grit and skill that made him the first Israeli-born player to be drafted into the NBA. Other than that, not a whole lot to be excited about on this roster and it will be interesting to see how new coach Paul Westphal can coax more than the 17 wins the team had last year out of this group.

14. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Wallace, really? You give away Pau Gasol two years ago "to save money" and then acquire Zach Randolph and his equally expensive contract? Oh sure, he'll put up his fair share of 20-10 lines, but he's also just as likely to punch a teammate or eat his way to the bench. Top it off by bringing in Allen Iverson on a one-year, I've gotta show I still got it, deal and you've got the makings of disaster. Keep in mind this team had enough trouble sharing the ball last year with gunners Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo, and now you add in those two. It's like the 2003-04 Lakers with Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Payton....except with like 1/8th the talent and skill. At the very least the offensive shortcomings of #2 pick Hasheem Thabeet should go unnoticed since he will probably never get the chance to shoot.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Trading two of your better players (Mike Miller and Randy Foye) for the rights to a guy playing the next few years in Spain does little to help the T'Wolves outlook for this season. But they seem OK with that reality. This is a team that is starting to accrue some good young talent. They get Al Jefferson and Corey Brewer back from injury, Kevin Love (though hurt) had a promising rookie season, Johnny Flynn has the ability to be a dynamic guard, and they made a very underrated move in signing Ramon Sessions to a very reasonable (in NBA starting PG terms) 4-year, $16 million deal. That said, this is a step in the right direction as they try to get out from the weight of the Kevin McHale era, but this team is still a few years away.

12. Los Angeles Clippers
I was poised to make the Clippers a dark-horse playoff contender until news broke about Blake Griffin's broken kneecap (cue the ominous, cursed Clipper talk). This team still has some really talented players but it was really looking to Griffin to be the glue to their puzzle. With him projected to miss 6 weeks (and about 20 games looking at their schedule), that's a sizeable chunk of his rookie season and it may be enough to cost the Clippers the shot of making a run at the #8 spot. However, I think the Clips are heading in the right direction, and with another high draft pick and a load of cap space next offseason (thanks to the aforementioned dumbass Chris Wallace and his taking of Zach Randolph's contract), the "other" LA could be an enticing option for some of the prized free agents of the 2010 class.

11. Oklahoma City Thunder
I personally love this quote from the LA Times basketball preview: "If this were a 25-and-under league, you'd have to love their chances." Alas, it is not, but you can't ignore the fact that the Thunder aren't just heading in the right direction, they're writing the book on how to get there. The team has a bevy of young talent, including MVP-in-waiting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green. They added James Harden to the group, along with a couple of down-the-road rookies that could provide returns in a few years (BJ Mullens, Serge Ibaka). They did what most NBA teams can't help but do and waited on spending their mountains of cap space on an underwhelming free agent class. They head into next season armed with two 1st round picks that could be in the lottery (their own and Phoenix's), plus a high #2 (from Minnesota) and could bring in one of the free agents in next year's bonanza. This team is going to be scary good in two years. As for this year, look for them to still be going through some growing pains and the lack of a reliable inside scoring game to hamper their offense when shots aren't falling. Their young guns are good enough to win them a fair share of games, but this is not the year of OKC (yet). I do have one reservation about this prediction: If KD does make another quantum leap in production (and many say he still has that room for growth), then all bets are off.

10. Golden State Warriors
Ever since famously upsetting the Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs, the Warriors have had a team that, on paper, should be a playoff contender. But little of that playoff magic has managed to carry over and this team always seems to be in flux. This year is no different with the (former) Captain Jack requesting a trade in preseason (after being banished to the locker room by Don Nelson during a game). They have an immensely talented youngin' in Anthony Randolph, but the question is will he get PT. They added another undersized combo guard in Stephen Curry who excels on offense but offers little on D, which isn't bad until you realize his likely backcourt mate is the similar Monta Ellis. As has been the formula for the Warriors and most Don Nelson teams, they will score their points, but will also give them up in astonishing amounts. If things were to break the right way, this team could shoot its way back into the playoff talk, but I see them spending another year in ho-hum land, which is really a travesty since playoff basketball in Oakland is really something to appreciate.

9. Houston Rockets
No Yao Ming, a giant question mark regarding what Tracy McGrady will provide this season, and one player on a 15-man roster listed as taller than 6-9. Sure, this plucky bunch took the Lakers to 7 games last year but I really don't see that carrying over to an 82-game regular season. I as much as anyone love Trevor Ariza, but I do recognize that he is much better as a complimentary player than how I think he will fare in a more prominent role in Houston. That said, he's a good piece for the Rockets if he either develops a reliable offensive game or they get a healthy Yao/T-Mac combo back. Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks are going to be asked to carry a lot of offensive burden this season and that is a lot to ask for. We know the Rockets will defend and play hard to the final whistle, but I think they've just been dealt a bad hand for this season and will struggle to overcome that, hard as they might try.